As COP29 opens in Baku, Azerbaijan, Europe stands at a crossroads in climate diplomacy. The summit’s focus on global climate goals comes against a backdrop of renewed geopolitical tensions, especially as Donald Trump returns to the U.S. presidency. With Trump’s historically dismissive stance on climate change and commitment to fossil fuels, his administration presents a challenge to Europe’s climate ambitions. Trump’s vow to exit the Paris Agreement, as he did in 2017, could stall global climate action, shaking faith in multilateral commitments and complicating negotiations on crucial climate finance for vulnerable nations.
COP29 also faces mounting scrutiny due to Azerbaijan’s extensive fossil fuel interests and a leadership deeply entwined with the oil and gas industry. This year’s COP29 symbolizes both the opportunities and vulnerabilities in the current climate policy landscape, forcing Europe to reassess its strategy to demonstrate resilience despite America’s pivot and maintain momentum in the fight against climate change.
Azerbaijan’s role as host of COP29, following the UAE’s fossil fuel–aligned COP28, has sparked concerns that climate summits may increasingly become stages for “fossil fuel diplomacy.” Transparency International and the Anti-Corruption Data Collective recently issued warnings over potential “fossil fuel industry capture” and corporate influence, especially with the conference being led by a former SOCAR executive. There’s a palpable risk that climate policy discussions may be overshadowed by negotiations over new fossil fuel ventures, diluting the urgency to curb carbon emissions. For Europe, this raises the stakes for keeping the climate agenda uncompromised and for preserving the integrity of global climate discussions.
Expectations for the climate finance COP
At COP29 in Baku, leaders and stakeholders face mounting pressure to deliver actionable climate solutions amid a surge in record-breaking climate events – like the recent, destructive floodings in Valencia – and public demand for urgent change. Central to COP29’s objectives are commitments to a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance, aiming to replace the outdated $100 billion target with more robust funding, potentially over $1 trillion, to support vulnerable nations.
To mobilize resources, the summit is focusing on innovative funding mechanisms, renewable energy expansion, and critical technologies like energy storage. Local governments, civil society, and youth movements are also contributing to a «just transition,» ensuring workers and communities benefit equitably from the green shift.
Expected outcomes include more ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund to aid climate-impacted regions, and new accountability structures to drive tangible results.
Europe’s response to Trump’s climate rollbacks
With Trump’s return, Europe must prepare for a potential rollback in American climate cooperation. The anticipated impacts of his second term on the COP process include reduced international climate funding, a possible loosening of emissions regulations, and intensified fossil fuel production in the U.S. Europe, however, remains committed to its net-zero 2050 target and may find itself increasingly isolated as a leading advocate for climate action on the global stage. The second-largest emitting country reducing climate action could discourage other countries to make efforts in that direction, even if the Biden Administration will still be running the US representation at this conference.
This new political landscape demands that the EU strengthen its leadership and bolster alliances with climate-committed nations. The recent expansion of the BRICS bloc and new alliances in Asia and Africa signal an era of shifting power dynamics, where Europe can leverage its climate leadership to forge meaningful, resilient partnerships.
Europe’s Green Deal is an ambitious template for a sustainable economy, but it will need greater resilience and a more collaborative approach to counteract the potential vacuum in American climate leadership. Europe can no longer rely on external influence but must leverage internal cohesion to champion robust climate policies independently.
To confront the shifting dynamics, Europe is also tasked with reinforcing its strategic autonomy, especially in energy security and sustainable development. This involves recalibrating energy policies to reduce reliance on oil and gas imports, particularly from politically volatile or environmentally questionable sources. With gas supply threats underscoring the need for diversified energy sources, a revitalized energy security strategy that embraces renewables and clean hydrogen is critical. Europe’s energy autonomy could also serve as a model for climate resilience, opening opportunities for collaboration with emerging markets while demonstrating sustainable alternatives to fossil fuel dependence.
Europe must prioritize accountability in climate finance
Europe’s commitment to climate finance includes ensuring that funds reach intended projects rather than lining the pockets of corrupt officials or reinforcing autocratic regimes. Europe, along with international partners, can play a pivotal role in advancing transparency standards, promoting green bonds, and implementing safeguards that ensure funds are used effectively for climate mitigation and adaptation efforts.
The decisive decade
As Europe navigates the complexities of COP29 and Trump II, it faces a decisive decade. The EU’s ability to sustain climate action amid political shifts will define its global influence and its capacity to drive a just energy transition. Europe’s path forward involves balancing assertive leadership on climate policy with diplomatic finesse, setting an example of sustainable development in an uncertain world.
In this transformative era, Europe must double down on innovation, uphold transparency, and champion climate resilience. COP29 in Baku represents a critical test of the bloc’s dedication to a net-zero future. Amidst the challenges, there’s a growing recognition that Europe’s climate goals are not merely regional priorities but essential benchmarks for the global community.
